Correlation Analysis of the Impact of Selected Socio-Economic Indicators on Fertility in Tuva (1990–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25178/nit.2026.3.15Keywords:
total fertility rate, fertility, fertility factor, correlation analysis, birth order, regional demography, Tuva, TuvansAbstract
The article analyzes the impact of objective socio-economic indicators on fertility in Tuva as a region with extremely high fertility. It identifies and provides substantive interpretations of statistically robust relationships between the dynamics of the total fertility rate and indicators of welfare, housing conditions, education, healthcare, economic dynamics, migration, and the settlement system. The information base consists of long-term series of official statistics from Rosstat and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (EMISS) for Tuva for 1990–2024.
It is established that the most substantively interpretable positive correlations of the overall total fertility rate in Tuva are observed with gross regional product per capita, housing commissioning, the share of wages and social transfers in the income structure, life expectancy, and the capacity of the outpatient-polyclinic network. The most pronounced negative relationships are observed with the provision of places in preschool institutions, the number of hospital beds, digital inclusion of households, credit indebtedness, poverty, total housing floor space per capita, and migration balance.
The results show that fertility in Tuva is determined not by a single factor, but by a combination of several multidirectional contours. On the one hand, it is supported by the resource and institutional security of the family; on the other hand, digital and consumer modernization is statistically associated with a weakening of fertility. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of more targeted adjustment of regional demographic policy, taking into account the specifics of the region.
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Sitkovskiy A. M. Correlation Analysis of the Impact of Selected Socio-Economic Indicators on Fertility in Tuva (1990‑2024). New Research of Tuva, 2026, no. 3, pp. 254-271. (In Russ.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.25178/nit.2026.3.15
Author Biography
-
Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy RUDN University; Federal Research Sociological Center, Russian Academy of Sciences
Junior researcher, Research Laboratory «Dynamics of Languages in Minority Situations», RUDN University;
Researcher, Laboratory of Digital Demography, Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Postal addresses: 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., 117198, Russia, Moscow; 6k1 Fotiyevoy St., 119333, Russia, Moscow.
E-mail: omnistat@yandex.ru
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